Animal Kingdom returns with win at Gulfstream

Horseracing Betting Lines

02/18/2012 - Hallandale Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Eclipse Award winner Animal Kingdom made a successful return to the races on Saturday with a worst-to-first result at Gulfstream Park. The four-year-old was making his first start since last year's Belmont Stakes.

Trained by Graham Motion, Animal Kingdom was the 3-5 post-time favorite in the six-horse field and was ridden by John Velazquez. The chestnut colt, owned by Team Valor, was using the 1 1/16-mile allowance race on the turf as a prep for the $10 million Dubai World Cup on March 31.

The colt originally was to start in the Tampa Bay Stakes on the grass at Tampa Bay Downs on February 25.

After trailing the field in the early going during the race, Animal Kingdom began to advance from the outside with a half-mile to run. The favorite drew even with the leaders on the final turn and took the lead entering the stretch.

"They went slow enough where he just pulled me into contention all on his own," said Velazquez. "I let him do what he wanted as opposed to wrangling him back behind horses."

Animal Kingdom drove down the stretch to register a two-length victory over 2-1 second choice Monument Hill. Bell by the Ridge was third followed by Royal Hill, Tannersville and Midnight Mischief.

"The second I started kissing at him in the stretch, he picked it right up and took off," Velazquez said. "It was a great feeling today and great to have him back. He felt as good as ever."

The time for the race on a firm turf course was 1:41.72.

"All we were worried about was having him run too big. We didn't want to see a big race and have him leave it on the track. We did not need a big race here. All we wanted was a nice quiet race and we got it," said Barry Irwin, founder and CEO of Team Valor International. "He's much better than he was last year. This race is not going to prove that, but we can tell by the way he trains and the way he looks, he's a much better horse this year."

The 2011 Kentucky Derby winner and champion three-year-old picked up $30,000 with the win and now has earnings of more than $1.96 million. It was his fourth win in eight career starts.

"Obviously, I would have been disappointed if he hadn't won today, when you've have a race that's set up for you. But this was the best thing for us. He still had to go out there and it," Motion said. "He needed a race and still has six weeks to regroup to get him to Dubai in the right way."

Animal Kingdom suffered a hairline fracture during the running of the 2011 Belmont Stakes. Prior to that he was second in the Preakness Stakes in addition to taking the Run for the Roses. In March of last year he captured the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park.

"This horse has come a long way since October. Nothing was more heartbreaking than to see this horse stuck in a stall a week after the Belmont. He went from being the fittest horse in the country to not being able to get out of his stall. That was tough," said Motion, whose Derby winner underwent surgery to repair a fracture in his left hind leg in June. "To see him today, back to himself, obviously Im elated."

Animal Kingdom returned $3.20, $2.20 and $2.10. Monument Hill paid $2.80 and $2.10, and Bell by the Ridge paid $4.20 to show.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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